Wednesday, August 09, 2006
Some may say I am over the top...
with some of the articles I post on this blog. Bear with me while I explain a few things about Zimbabwe. When Rhodesia was under Ian Smiths rule the Rhodesian dollar was STRONGER than the US Dollar and the Pound! By 1998 the exchange rate was Z$64 to the US$. Eight years later (2006) the exchange rate is Z$1000000 (thats one million) to the British Pound. If someone had predicted this exchange rate in (say) 1995 I'm sure everyone would have said they were mad and yet here we are horrified by Zimbabwes currency crisis.
Add 1200% inflation and close to 90% unemployment and you have another failed African state.
So getting back to SA. I predict that by 2014 SA will suffer a similar fate to its neighbour. Why this date? Well Zimbabwes collapse started when Mugabe announced the land grabs. This took 20 years (1980 - 2000) from when he took power. So if we assume something similar happens in SA then 1994 + 20 years = 2014. Of course Zimbabwe didn't collapse overnight. It has taken from 2000 until the present for them to get to where they are (ie: near total collapse). So if we add another 6 years onto 2014 we come to 2020. This is when SA will be dependant on food imports and it will be hellishly difficult to emigrate due to the weak exchange rate. Keep in mind that countries you can immigrate to have visa quotas so if theres a mass exodus you could find yourself in a very difficult situation. Thats why I say its better to be 10 years early than one day late.
Can you imagine trying to emigrate when it cost R100 or more to buy one pound? I shudder to even think about it. Its difficult enough to leave SA with the exchange rate as it is. My advise is to have some funds overseas if you are considering leaving. Krugerrands are also ideal in an unstable environment.
Call me a pessimist but theres no reason to think that this WON'T happen in SA. The weight of Africa will ultimately crush SA.
Protect yourself and plan ahead.
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Interesting analysis. The 20 year period to absolute disaster seems accurate for most post colonial african states. One aspect that might influence SA's time to complete failure is the large white population. I would add about 4 to 5 years to your estimation of 2014 to account for this. But anyway, once the 2010 @#$ hits the fan I'm gone. Better 10 years early...
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